Forecasting the long-term impacts of land use and cover changes on runoff coefficient and flood hydrograph: a case study of the Upper Citanduy Basin, Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15243/jdmlm.2025.123.7417Keywords:
CA-ANN, flood hydrograph, LULC, runoff coefficient, ungauged basinAbstract
Land use and land cover (LULC) change significantly affects hydrological processes in ungauged basins, where data limitations hinder accurate analysis and modeling. This study assesses the long-term impacts of LULC changes on the runoff coefficient (RC) and flood hydrograph in the Upper Citanduy Basin, Indonesia, using data from 2014, 2019, and 2024 to project future scenarios through 2029. The Cellular Automata-Artificial Neural Network (CA-ANN) model through the MOLUSCE plugin in QGIS was used for LULC forecasting, achieving high accuracy (Kappa>0.9). The results indicate a 16.97% increase in the composite runoff coefficient from 2014 to 2029, primarily driven by the conversion of agricultural land into built-up areas. This increase was most pronounced in the early years, stabilizing as urbanization and land degradation effects moderated. HEC-HMS simulations using Synthetic Unit Hydrograph (SUH) methods, including Nakayasu, Snyder, and Clark SUHs, revealed that peak discharges for lower return periods (RP) in the future could approach or exceed those of higher RPs in the past. For instance, the 5-year RP peak discharge in 2029 (2.137 m³ s?¹) closely resembles the 25-year RP in 2019 (2.165 m³ s?¹). Similarly, the 5-year RP in 2024 (1.794 m³ s?¹) is comparable to the 10-year RP in 2014 (1.768 m³ s?¹), while the 5-year RP in 2019 (1.727 m³ s?¹) is nearly the same as the 2-year RP in 2029 (1.734 m³ s?¹). These findings underscore the need for sustainable land-use planning and adaptive flood management to mitigate hydrological impacts in ungauged basins.
References
Ardli, E.R. and Wolff, M. 2009. Land use and land cover change affecting habitat distribution in the Segara Anakan lagoon, Java, Indonesia. Regional Environmental Change 9(4):235-243. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-008-0072-6
Babak, O. and Deutsch, C.V. 2009. Statistical approach to inverse distance interpolation. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment 23(5):543-553. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-008-0226-6
Bashir, B.M. and Mimi, Z.A. 2005. Synthetic unit hydrograph for Al Fara'a catchment in the West Bank. Water International 30(3):372-377. https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060508691878
Bayraktar, H., Turalioglu, F.S. and ?en, Z. 2005. The estimation of average areal rainfall by percentage weighting polygon method in Southeastern Anatolia Region, Turkey. Atmospheric Research 73(1):149-160. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2004.08.003.
Borre, L., Barker, D.R. and Duker, L.E. 2001. Institutional arrangements for managing the great lakes of the world: Results of a workshop on implementing the watershed approach. Lakes & Reservoirs: Research & Management 6(3):199-209. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1440-1770.2001.00148.x
Chen, C.N. and Tang, C.Y. 2002. Conversion of unit hydrographs by complementary hydrograph method. Journal of Hydrological Engineering 7(6):420-427. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(2002)7:6(420)
Chow, V., Maidment, D. and Mays, L. 2013. Applied Hydrology, Second Edition. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Del Giudice, G., Padulano, R. and Rasulo, G. 2014. Spatial prediction of the runoff coefficient in Southern Peninsular Italy for the index flood estimation. Hydrology Research 45(2):263-281. https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2013.243
Dhakal, N., Fang, X., Asquith, W.H., Cleveland, T.G. and Thompson, D.B. 2013. Return period adjustment for runoff coefficients based on analysis in undeveloped Texas watersheds. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering 139(6):476-482. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)IR.1943-4774.0000571
Erena, S.H. and Worku, H. 2019. Dynamics of land use land cover and resulting surface runoff management for environmental flood hazard mitigation: The case of Dire Daw city, Ethiopia. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 22:100598. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2019.100598
Follosco Jr, A.D., Luyun, R.A., Lampayan, R.M. and Gonzales, J.A. 2023. Development of synthetic unit hydrographs using spatial proximity regionalization for the Makiling Forest Reserve, Philippines. Journal of Environmental Science and Management 1:1-13. https://doi.org/10.47125/jesam/2023_sp1/01
Foody, G.M. 2020. Explaining the unsuitability of the kappa coefficient in the assessment and comparison of the accuracy of thematic maps obtained by image classification. Remote Sensing of Environment 239:111630. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2019.111630
Giacomoni, M.H. and Zechman, E.M. 2009. Hydrologic footprint residence: A new metric to assess hydrological alterations due to urbanization. Proceedings of World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2009 - World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2009: Great Rivers. https://doi.org/10.1061/41036(342)119
Guoshuai, Z., Anjun, D., Jianguo, C., Dangwei, W., Qin, L. and Yiqin, X. 2023. Improving the double mass curve method to analyse the variation trend of runoff and sediment load in watersheds. LHB Hydroscience Journal 109(1):2236971. https://doi.org/10.1080/27678490.2023.2236971
Guzha, A.C., Rufino, M.C., Okoth, S., Jacobs, S. and Nóbrega, R.L.B. 2018. Impacts of land use and land cover change on surface runoff, discharge and low flows: Evidence from East Africa. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 15:49-67. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2017.11.005
Haan, C.T. 2002. Statistical Methods in Hydrology (2 ed.). Ames: Iowa State Press.
Hameed, H.M., Faqe, G.R. and Rasul, A. 2020. Effects of land cover change on surface runoff using GIS and remote sensing: A case study Duhok Sub-basin. In: Al-Quraishi, A.M.F. and Negm, A.M. (eds.), Environmental Remote Sensing and GIS in Iraq (pp. 205-223). Cham: Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-21344-2_9
Irawan, P., Setiawan, J., Hendra, Sari, N.K. and Awaliyah, S. 2024. Analysis of dominant heavy rainfall distribution patterns in the Upper Citanduy Watershed. Jurnal Sumber Daya Air 20(2):75-86 (in Indonesian). https://doi.org/10.32679/jsda.v20i2.894
Jia, H. and Wan, R. 2012. Simulating the impacts of land use/cover change on storm-runoff for a mesoscale watershed in east China. Advanced Materials Research. https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.347-353.3856.
Koneti, S., Sunkara, S.L. and Roy, P.S. 2018. Hydrological modeling with respect to impact of land-use and land-cover change on the runoff dynamics in Godavari River Basin using the HEC-HMS model. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information 7(6):206. https://doi.org/doi.org/10.3390/ijgi7060206
Lallam, F., Megnounif, A. and Ghenim, A.N. 2018. Estimating the runoff coefficient using the analytic hierarchy process. Journal of Water and Land Development 38(1):67-74. https://doi.org/10.2478/jwld-2018-0043
Lemma, T.M., Gessesse, G.D., Kassa, A.K. and Edossa, D.C. 2018. Effect of spatial scale on runoff coefficient: Evidence from the Ethiopian highlands. International Soil and Water Conservation Research 6(4):289-296. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iswcr.2018.08.002
Li, B.Q., Xiao, W.H., Wang, Y.C., Yang, M.Z. and Huang, Y. 2018. Impact of land use/cover change on the relationship between precipitation and runoff in typical area. Journal of Water and Climate Change 9(2):261-274. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2018.055
Li, Y., Li, X. and Li, G. 2015. Runoff coefficient characteristics and its dominant influence factors of the riparian Myricaria squamosa Desv. shrubs over Qinghai Lake basin, NE Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Arabian Journal of Geosciences 8(9):6655-6666. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-014-1738-7
Liu, X.J., Li, Z.B., Li, P., Zhang, T.G., Xu, G.C. and Gao, H.D. 2016. Land use/cover change based relationship between landscape, runoff, and sedimentation. Shengtai Xuebao 36(18):5691-5700. https://doi.org/10.5846/stxb201503190529
Lukas, P., Melesse, A.M. and Kenea, T.T. 2023. Prediction of future land use/land cover changes using a coupled CA-ANN model in the Upper Omo–Gibe River Basin, Ethiopia. Remote Sensing 15(4). https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15041148
Mahmoud, S.H., Mohammad, F.S. and Alazba, A.A. 2014. Determination of potential runoff coefficient for Al-Baha Region, Saudi Arabia using GIS. Arabian Journal of Geosciences 7(5):2041-2057. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-014-1303-4
Mangi, H.O., Onywere, S.M., Kitur, E.C., Lalika, M.C.S. and Chilagane, N.A. 2022. Hydrological response to land use and land cover change on the slopes of Kilimanjaro and Meru Mountains. Ecohydrology and Hydrobiology 22(4):609-626. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecohyd.2022.08.002
Nigussie, T.A., Ye?en, E.B. and Melesse, A.M. 2016. Performance evaluation of synthetic unit hydrograph methods in Mediterranean climate. A case study at Guvenc Micro-watershed, Turkey. In: Melesse, A.M. and Abtew, W. (eds.), Landscape Dynamics, Soils and Hydrological Processes in Varied Climates (pp. 293-315). Cham: Springer International Publishing.
Priyantoro, D. and Limantara, L.M. 2017. Conformity evaluation of synthetic unit hydrograph (case study at upstream Brantas sub watershed, East Java Province of Indonesia). Journal of Water and Land Development 35(1):173-183. https://doi.org/10.1515/jwld-207-0082
Prokešová, R. and Snopková, Z. 2022. Surface runoff response to long-term land use changes: Spatial rearrangement of runoff-generating areas reveals a shift in flash flood drivers. Science of the Total Environment 815. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151591
Ren, C., Song, X. and Song, M. 2023. Response of runoff processes to land use changes in the Qinhuai River Basin. Nongye Gongcheng Xuebao/Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering 39(21):139-151. https://doi.org/10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.202308002
Straub, T.D., Melching, C.S. and Kocher, K.E. 2000. Equations for estimating Clark unit-hydrograph parameters for small rural watersheds in Illinois (2000-4184). Reston, VA: U. S. Geological Survey.
Sukisno, Widiatmaka, Purwanto, M.Y.J., Noorachmat, B.P. and Munibah, K. 2023. The prediction of land use and land cover change and its impact on soil erosion and sedimentation in the Musi Hydropower-Plant catchment area in Bengkulu Province. Journal of Degraded and Mining Lands Management 10(4):4612-4645. https://doi.org/10.15243/jdmlm.2023.104.4629
Vl?ková, M., Nechvátal, M. and Soukup, M. 2009. Annual runoff coefficient in the Cerhovický Stream catchment. Journal of Water and Land Development 13(2):41-56. https://doi.org/10.2478/v10025-010-0004-y
Warrens, M.J. 2011. Cohen’s kappa is a weighted average. Statistical Methodology 8(6):473-484. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.stamet.2011.06.002
Xu, G., Cheng, Y., Zhao, C., Mao, J., Li, Z., Jia, L., Zhang, Y. and Wang, B. 2023. Effects of driving factors at multi-spatial scales on seasonal runoff and sediment changes. Catena 222. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2022.106867
Xu, T., Li, P.C. and Merwade, V. 2024. Analysis of short- and long-term controls on the variability of event-based runoff coefficient. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101993
Yang, M., Xue, L., Liu, Y., Wang, W., Han, Q., Liu, S. and Fu, R. 2024. Runoff response to multiple land-use changes and climate perturbations. Hydrological Processes 38(1). https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.15072
Downloads
Submitted
Accepted
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Journal of Degraded and Mining Lands Management
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Submission of a manuscript implies: that the work described has not been published before (except in the form of an abstract or as part of a published lecture, or thesis) that it is not under consideration for publication elsewhere; that if and when the manuscript is accepted for publication, the authors agree to automatic transfer of the copyright to the publisher. 
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Scientific Journal by Eko Handayanto is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Based on a work at https://ub.ac.id.
Permissions beyond the scope of this license may be available at https://ircmedmind.ub.ac.id/.
This work is licensed under a 